Which Surprising NFL Leaders Could Actually Contend for the Super Bowl?

With the 2014 NFL season reaching its halfway point this week, we’ve got a good sense of which teams are contending vs. which teams are already eyeing top draft picks next spring.  However, as is usually the case in these parity-driven league, several teams have come out and surprised us with brilliant starts to the year.  Sure, we expected the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots to be pretty good (as they are nearly every year), but who would have predicted hot starts for the Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, and Buffalo Bills?  With solid winning records and with fans’ hopes building, can one of these teams continue their hot streak on to wining the Super Bowl?

The short answer is no, and there’s countless reasons why.  Each of these teams have marginal quarterbacks at the helm.  One could try and argue that Tony Romo and Carson Palmer are elite given their statistics or that Matthew Stafford remains one of the game’s best young quarterback prospects, but none of these guys have had any real success in the playoffs.  And while Kyle Orton has played exceptional in several games for the Bills, we should know by now that he is little more than a serviceable backup.  Let’s see how his numbers last over the course of the year.

The one player truly capable of becoming elite is Stafford with the Lions.  Featuring Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush on offense, you’d think he’d be able to do it and at age 26 he still has room to grow and develop, but the Lions unfortunately have a knack for losing that is seemingly running rampant throughout the entire city of Detroit.  While they managed a playoff appearance in 2010 (which ended in the first round), they have become perennial late-season swooners.  Last season the Lions were 6-3 before stuttering to a 7-9 record.  In 2012 they were a respectable 4-4 before losing 8 straight and finishing 4-12.  This is a team that tends to run out of steam when the games begin to matter most! 

Meanwhile the Bills have also grown notorious for poor play, having not reached the NFL playoffs since 1999 (due in large part to the Patriots’ success).  They last teased their fans in 2011 by starting off 5-2 before succumbing to a 6-10 finish.  And then there’s the Cowboys, whose 8-8 record for 3 years running has been maddening to fans.  They seem to live for getting hopes up only to crush them with a late-season falter.  Romo seems to have all the skills but he folds under pressure.  At 34, the chance of him finally getting it right is fleeting at best.

Similarly, the Cardinals’ 34 year-old Carson Palmer has also been just a better-than average QB during his career, putting up solid numbers for the Cincinnati Bengals but never quite achieving greatness.  However, this is the team I see most likely to actually contend for the Super Bowl should the stars align.  The Cardinals got the short end of the stick last season and missed out on the playoffs despite a 10-6 record.  They are hungry and have proven that in the young season, claiming victories against the San Diego Chargers, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Philadelphia Eagles.  They will have a tough end to the year facing the 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks in successive weeks, though if they come through that test, look out!

For me, the challenge about a surprise team winning the Super Bowl is that they lack playoff experience.  Recent Super Bowl champs have all had unsuccessful playoff runs in previous years, but that experience helped them later on.  For example, the Seahawks won a wildcard game in 2012 before losing in the divisional round.  The next season they built off of that success and won the Super Bowl.  For teams like the Lions, Bills, Cardinals, and Cowboys, their last trips to the playoffs were so long ago that many of the core players really can’t understand the magnitude of such games.  As a result, should any of these teams reach the postseason, they’ll probably fall short and lose.  The best bet would be a solid, winning year to build up for a serious run at the Super Bowl in 2015.

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Are the Dallas Cowboys Really Ready to Contend for a Super Bowl?

The Dallas Cowboys are one of the great enigmas of professional football.  The type of team that often wows fans before its annual late-season collapse, folks in Dallas are collectively holding their breath, cautiously optimistic in order to avoid a massive embarrassment should the currently 5-1 Cowboys fail to capitalize on their bright start to the NFL season.  But, with the league so wide open and with Tony Romo’s maturity beginning to flourish, could the team stun the NFL and actually win the Super Bowl?

The championship hopes for Dallas rest largely on the shoulders of Tony Romo, which is normal for any football team as the quarterback position is by far the most important.  While fans and media were largely critical of the massive $100 million contract given to Romo last year, he has responded with great play.  Right now his quarterback rating is a solid 100.5, which is only bettered by guys like Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Philip Rivers.  It’s also worth noting that such a rating is currently higher than Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady.  If he continues at this pace, the Cowboys will certainly contend.

However, the big issue with Romo is his tendency to collapse in high-pressure situations.  The shining moment of Romo’s career is still his botched field goal hold in the playoffs of 2007, when the Cowboys lost to the Seattle Seahawks.

He did largely rectify the situation with a big win in Seattle this past weekend, defeating the reigning Super Bowl champions on their home turf and playing exceptionally well in the process however.

But a big part of this team’s success falls on their offensive line and their star running back DeMarco Murray, whose 785 yards leads the league by over 200 yards.  We will have to wait and see how he holds up over the full season as he is getting far more carries than any other back, but considering his success it appears to be well worth it.

With this potent and generally safe attack, the average defense currently employed by the Cowboys needs to merely slow opponents down and avoid major errors.  They are ranked pretty middle of the road, but with this impressive offense a title is certainly a possibility in Big D.

The issue falls back to Tony Romo and what might happen in the playoffs.  He’s only played in 4 such games and owns a 1-3 record.  His last playoff appearance was over 5 years ago, and the reason he hasn’t been back is because he stutters when games seem to matter most.  Performing in the clutch is what often separates the greats from the almosts, and until Tony Romo proves himself, those questions about his massive contract will linger.

The other problem for the Cowboys is that their division harbors another 5-1 team, the Philadelphia Eagles.  While such a matchup is going to set up an exciting NFC East race, it does lead to a strong potential for the Cowboys to end up with just a wildcard spot and a tricky road to the Super Bowl.

The fate of the 2014 Dallas Cowboys seems to be bright, but it’s going to be determined late in the season.  Once again, hopes are growing (as they should for any 5-1 team), but we will have to wait and see whether Dallas will get over the hump and win the big games.

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Quarterback Controversy - Tony Romo vs Joe Flacco

Tony Romo Autographed Dallas Cowboys Photo

NFL fans all know the huge contracts that Tony Romo and Joe Flacco received this year. Flacco got a big contract after his team won the Super Bowl and he was named the Super Bowl MVP. However, some NFL fans are wondering why Tony Romo got a huge contract when the Dallas Cowboys have not done much with him at the helm.

 

So the Dallas Cowboys gave Tony Romo a six-year contract worth $108 million with $55 million of that guaranteed. This is just slightly below the Baltimore Ravens contract with Joe Flacco who is also getting a six-year contract but it's worth is $120.6 million and $52 million is guaranteed. So even though Flacco's is more overall, Romo comes out ahead with the guaranteed money.

 

Let's compare the two and see how they rate neck to neck since 2008 when Flacco came into the league (and winning the Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Year Award). Here are the numbers:

 

Tony Romo (Since 2008)

 

Passing Yards: 18,623
Passing Touchdowns: 122
Pass Completions: 1,542
Pass Attempts: 2,383

Completion Percentage: 64.7%
Passes Intercepted: 59
Passes Over 20 Yards: 240
Times Sacked: 133

 

Joe Flacco (Since 2008 Rookie Year)

 

Passing Yards: 17,633
Passing Touchdowns: 102
Pass Completions: 1,507
Pass Attempts: 2,489

Completion Percentage: 60.5%
Passes Intercepted: 56
Passes Over 20 Yards: 225
Times Sacked: 44

So, based on these numbers, is Tony Romo's new contract really out of line. Why is it that he is the guy that everyone loves to hate. He has been sacked 3x's more than Flacco, so is it the Cowboy's offensive line that is at fault, or does Romo not throw it quickly enough? Either way, their numbers are very comparable.

 

Now the question is this, what will quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers going to receive since he is a much better quarterback then both Flacco and Romo. The Green Bay Packers will be paying huge when his contract is up in a couple of years.

 

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