Will Aaron Rodgers Win the 2014 NFL MVP Award?

There are a lot of factors that go into determining the MVP of the National Football League.  Yards, touchdowns, ratings, wins, and sometimes even popularity figure in to the award.  And while the MVP title is rather pointless in such a team sport as football, it does still carry a lot of merit and often helps label who the most impressive player has been in the league.  And while we still have a ways to go before anointing a true NFL MVP, my early vote (as well as my long term assumption) is for Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers to claim the award.

Rodgers has long been among the elite players and quarterbacks in professional football, and has already won the award in 2011.  That season he threw 45 touchdown passes and led the Packers to a 14-1 record before sitting out the finale.  This year he is playing at that same level.

His current QB rating of 119.3 is tops in the NFL, and so is his yards per attempt statistic at 8.65.  That value is often a reflection of just how potent a passer is.  His 30 touchdown passes are second in the league behind Peyton Manning.  The only areas of concern would be his 7^th ranked completion percentage and total yards ranking.  Some would argue that makes him the 7^th best quarterback in the NFL, hardly worthy of the MVP.

But such insight is terribly misguided.  Rodgers ranks just 16^th in the league in passing attempts!  Again looking at his remarkable touchdown and yards/attempt figures paints the more accurate picture.  He is doing more with fewer throws.  In fact, his 342 pass attempts is exactly 100 fewer than Manning.  The reason for this anomaly has been that the Packers have been winning a lot of their games early, and with blowouts.  Against the Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings (first game), Chicago Bears, and Philadelphia Eagles, Rodgers tore apart defenses and had the win wrapped up by halftime.  By the 3^rd quarter he’d largely be handing the ball off to Eddie Lacy and by the 4^th quarter backup Matt Flynn would be in.  His incredible play has actually put the Packers so far ahead that Rodgers hardly has to play.

Additionally, in tighter games Aaron Rodgers has been exceptional as well.  His memorable drive to win late in the game against the Miami Dolphins was exactly the type of stuff that MVP’s produce.  There is really no stopping this guy.  And while he has benefitted from an improved run game and a stronger defense in recent weeks, it just goes to show how strong a player Rodgers is when his team is clicking.

Lastly, I feel that the statistic that ends all the MVP discussion is his 3 interceptions.  This is by far the lowest of any starting QB and is the main reason his rating is so high.  To get a clear picture of the significance of this mark, Tom Brady has 6 and Peyton Manning has 9.  The only player who manages games close to Rodgers’ level is Alex Smith, who has just 4 interceptions.  But while that number is very solid, his 13 TD’s pale in comparison to the 30 thrown by Rodgers.

And so if the season ended today, I would fully expect the MVP to be awarded to Aaron Rodgers.  And based on how he and the Packers typically finish seasons, I would anticipate those great numbers to continue.  The only player who really has a good shot of beating him would be DeMarco Murray of the Dallas Cowboys, a running back.  But this is where the name factor comes into play and would largely lean in Rodgers’ favor.  It’s also worth noting that 6 of the last 7 MVP awards have been handed to quarterbacks.  But if Murray breaks 2,000 rushing yards he may take the award.  However, I think that Rodgers’ season has been more impressive and is likely to capture the 2014 NFL MVP!

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Are the Dallas Cowboys Really Ready to Contend for a Super Bowl?

The Dallas Cowboys are one of the great enigmas of professional football.  The type of team that often wows fans before its annual late-season collapse, folks in Dallas are collectively holding their breath, cautiously optimistic in order to avoid a massive embarrassment should the currently 5-1 Cowboys fail to capitalize on their bright start to the NFL season.  But, with the league so wide open and with Tony Romo’s maturity beginning to flourish, could the team stun the NFL and actually win the Super Bowl?

The championship hopes for Dallas rest largely on the shoulders of Tony Romo, which is normal for any football team as the quarterback position is by far the most important.  While fans and media were largely critical of the massive $100 million contract given to Romo last year, he has responded with great play.  Right now his quarterback rating is a solid 100.5, which is only bettered by guys like Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Philip Rivers.  It’s also worth noting that such a rating is currently higher than Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady.  If he continues at this pace, the Cowboys will certainly contend.

However, the big issue with Romo is his tendency to collapse in high-pressure situations.  The shining moment of Romo’s career is still his botched field goal hold in the playoffs of 2007, when the Cowboys lost to the Seattle Seahawks.

He did largely rectify the situation with a big win in Seattle this past weekend, defeating the reigning Super Bowl champions on their home turf and playing exceptionally well in the process however.

But a big part of this team’s success falls on their offensive line and their star running back DeMarco Murray, whose 785 yards leads the league by over 200 yards.  We will have to wait and see how he holds up over the full season as he is getting far more carries than any other back, but considering his success it appears to be well worth it.

With this potent and generally safe attack, the average defense currently employed by the Cowboys needs to merely slow opponents down and avoid major errors.  They are ranked pretty middle of the road, but with this impressive offense a title is certainly a possibility in Big D.

The issue falls back to Tony Romo and what might happen in the playoffs.  He’s only played in 4 such games and owns a 1-3 record.  His last playoff appearance was over 5 years ago, and the reason he hasn’t been back is because he stutters when games seem to matter most.  Performing in the clutch is what often separates the greats from the almosts, and until Tony Romo proves himself, those questions about his massive contract will linger.

The other problem for the Cowboys is that their division harbors another 5-1 team, the Philadelphia Eagles.  While such a matchup is going to set up an exciting NFC East race, it does lead to a strong potential for the Cowboys to end up with just a wildcard spot and a tricky road to the Super Bowl.

The fate of the 2014 Dallas Cowboys seems to be bright, but it’s going to be determined late in the season.  Once again, hopes are growing (as they should for any 5-1 team), but we will have to wait and see whether Dallas will get over the hump and win the big games.

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