NFL Season Picks Up Right Where it Left Off Last Season

The wonderful thing about the NFL is that with the worst teams getting the top draft picks, and with the inclusion of the salary cap, predicting who will remain dominant from one year to the next is a very inexact science.  Once great teams can implode very quickly while a “worst to first” occurrence in one of the NFL divisions seems to happen annually.  However, after watching week 1 of the 2014 NFL season, it seems like this year has picked up right where we left off from a year ago, with little substantial change.

In short, both Super Bowl participants of last year won big.  The Seattle Seahawks’ tough defense beat up on the Green Bay Packers (whose weak defense continues to look shaky).  Meanwhile, Peyton Manning and his high-octane Denver Broncos offense looked tremendous (even without the suspended Wes Welker) once again in their victory over his former team, the Indianapolis Colts.  However, the Colts still looked competitive, as Andrew Luck nearly pulled off a comeback reminiscent of his heroics last season in the NFL playoffs against the Kansas City Chiefs.  However, against a top-level team like the Broncos, his efforts weren’t enough.

Elsewhere, most of last season’s playoff teams won last week, including the Carolina Panthers, the Cincinnati Bengals, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Philadelphia Eagles.  A few surprises did rattle our predicting senses, like the Miami Dolphins tremendous comeback victory over Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, and the Tennessee Titans dominating the Chiefs, who’s poor form late last season seems to have continued.

Largely though, it was the same players kicking off the year in the fashion we’ve grown used to.  The Dallas Cowboys’ quarterback Tony Romo continued to throw the ball (and the game) away to the defense with 3 interceptions, the San Diego Chargers found a way to ruin a strong lead over the Arizona Cardinals, and the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints battled to an exciting, close game which Matt Ryan and the Falcons won.

And unfortunately, the typical lowest of the low NFL teams continued their atrocious form, reminding fans that they are still paltry teams that shouldn’t even dream of glory; see the Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, St. Louis Rams, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

But what does warmly breathe new life for football fans is that the sport has officially returned.  Yes, your specific team may still be dealing with the frustrations of the past and a rather bleak outlook, but at least your Sunday afternoons have returned to normal with all the games on display!

And who knows, there are still 15 games for each team to decide their fate.  The great thing about the NFL season is that teams can easily overcome a loss by proving the doubters wrong the next week by winning and changing their fortunes.  The real drama of the season will arrive come December, when the playoff contending teams must get their acts together and earn vital wins.  But those days are still a long ways away.  For now, it’s time to simply enjoy the action because while half the teams lost their openers, the season still beckons brightly for everyone….Except the Rams…losing Sam Bradford to an ACL again is just tragic!

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Which NFL Team With a Bye is Most Likely to Lose in the Playoffs this Week?

In the NFL, there is a definite goal during the regular season for the best teams to earn one of the top 2 AFC or NFC seeds in the playoffs.  While the other 8 teams had to compete in the wildcard round last weekend, these 4 distinguished teams had the luxury of resting players and gearing up for the final push in the season ahead of the Super Bowl.  Those fortunate squads include the league’s most potent offenses and most powerful defenses.

In the NFC, the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks have been terrorizing opponents’ offenses all year.  Hard-hitting players like Luke Kuechly, Greg Hardy, Richard Sherman, and Earl Thomas are quickly becoming known as some of the toughest in the entire league.  And as the cliché states, “defense wins championships”.  Both teams are among the favorites for the Super Bowl.

But in the AFC, the two top teams feature the legendary quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, who know how to win and how to score points.  Manning led the Denver Broncos and their offense to a record-setting year, while Brady helped the New England Patriots overcome numerous injuries and dismissals to still be among the best teams around.

But while the natural thought would be that these teams would steamroll their way to the Championship games next weekend, upsets have become more and more the norm for NFL games.  Especially for teams that receive a bye in the playoffs, there can often be a bit of a lull and a lost sense of urgency.  Slight rustiness can derail these teams’ hopes very quickly.  Additionally, there is the issue of momentum.  Some of these wildcard teams have been battling all season long, and have been playing in potential season-ending games for a month.  Meanwhile, teams like the Broncos and Seahawks booked their tickets to the playoffs a month ago and haven’t had to play in high intensity matches since November.  This can totally catch a favored team off-guard when a hungry and determined team comes into their stadium ready to fight!

So which team is most likely to be upset this weekend?  The Carolina Panthers.  The problem with the Panthers is that they lack playoff experience.  While the Broncos, Patriots, and Seahawks all have been in many such high profile games, the Panthers haven’t reached the postseason since 2008.  Additionally, this will be quarterback Cam Newton’s first experience in such a game.  Newton is an emotional player and has a tendency to overthrow receivers when rattled.  While he does have big game experience in winning the BCS National Championship with Auburn, he has yet to face an NFL defense in such a high profile game.  The San Francisco 49ers have a defense among the league’s best.  With such a young and inexperienced squad, the Panthers are ripe for the picking.

The one player who does have playoff experience is the team’s top receiving option, Steve Smith, who is likely to play but could certainly be slowed by a PCL sprain late in the season.  With his injury and the youth of the Panthers, I see them facing a severe test in this game.  The 49ers were in the Super Bowl last year and certainly can slow down Newton and the Panthers.  Additionally, 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick is a dynamic playmaker, and running back Frank Gore can certainly push the pile.

However, the Panthers did beat the 49ers in a defensive battle earlier in the year, and they clearly have the talent alone to make a Super Bowl run.  I think this game is a definite toss-up and may just be the end of a remarkable season for the Panthers.  While they are certainly the most likely of the top seeded teams to fall this week, the Carolina Panthers still have a great team and could win this game.  Let’s see what happens this weekend in the NFL Divisional playoff round!

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Widespread Disappointments In 2013 NFL Season: Which Team Has Been Worst?

Here are a few of the legitimate predictions for the 2013 season BEFORE it began: The Minnesota Vikings will contend for the NFC North with Christian Ponder finally becoming a good player and with the addition of Greg Jennings.  Robert Griffin III will fight back through his injury and lead the Washington Redskins to greatness.  Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are simply too good.  The Houston Texans have all the needed pieces of the puzzle for winning the Super Bowl; they just need to win the big games.  The Pittsburgh Steelers will be contenders with Troy Polamalu playing healthy again.  With Steven Jackson, anything is possible for the Atlanta Falcons!  As we now can see, many of these teams have failed to live up to expectations this year.  So who was the worst?

Every year a handful of teams crumble under the pressure of high expectations and above you’ve seen the list of this year.  For every surprising upstart by a team like the Carolina Panthers, another team must suffer.  Such is the way of life in the NFL.  However terrible their seasons have been I think two teams deserve a bit of slack as far as their disappointments:  The Packers and the Redskins.

Sure, the Redskins have the most politically incorrect name and their cocky antics have set them up well to be mocked for their pathetic 3-9 record, but their season was ruined in the NFC Playoffs last year when Griffin III suffered a catastrophic knee injury.  His return to the field was rushed and caused him to miss an entire offseason of practice.  He doesn’t move with the ease and fluidity as he did last year and he is not the same player.  For anyone to expect him to return with the prowess of his rookie year is quite ridiculous.  I sense he may be headed for more success next season.

Likewise, the Packers have suffered the loss of star quarterback Aaron Rodgers.  At 5-2 before his collarbone injury, everything was going right for the team.  Now everything has gone wrong, and they are barely limping ahead and only remain in the playoff race because the Detroit Lions aren’t very good either.  They too can be spared blame because losing a star quarterback is as catastrophic as it can get in the NFL. But for the other teams mentioned (Steelers, Texans, Falcons, Vikings) this season has been a major disappointment and it’s hard to know where to point the finger.

The Vikings were expecting big things following their 10-6 record last season and a trip to the playoffs.  Adding veteran wide receiver Greg Jennings and linebacker Desmond Bishop were supposed to be key ingredients for a side ready to get over the hump.  Instead?  They have yet to figure out who their starting quarterback is and have tried 3, who have all largely failed.  The team is 3-8-1 and wondering what on Earth happened and where to start fixing it.

And then there are the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Traditionally built around a strong offensive line and a tough defense, it’s been anything but that for the Steelers.  Their defense is quite average and their offensive line is quite wretched, highlighted by running back Le’Veon Bell’s 3.3 yard average per rush and Ben Roethlisberger’s 36 sacks (4^th highest in the league).  At 5-7, the 2013 Steelers are practically finished and seem far removed from their Super Bowl days past.

But these aren’t even the worst.  No, there are even far greater disappointments in this league.  Let us take a look at the Atlanta Falcons.  This team has been near the top of the NFC for roughly 5 years and was able to convince Tony Gonzalez to come back for one more go-around.  They just fell short in the NFC Championship game last year, and with quarterback Matt Ryan, incoming running back Steven Jackson, and a generally mature squad of playmakers they expected to contend this season.  What happened?  Star wide receiver Julio Jones got hurt, Jackson is clearly over the hill, and Ryan has been frightfully average.  Meanwhile their once respectable defense is morbid and simply cannot get after the quarterback.  They stand at 3-9 while everyone scratches their heads.

And then there’s the most disappointing team of all: the Houston Texans.  Having reached the playoffs in 2011 and 2012, this team was ready to get over the hump and start contending.  Supposed inexperience in the playoffs had doomed them to early exits in those years, but their roster talent was shown as contender-worthy.  Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, and J.J. Watt are all capable of making highlight plays.  Matt Schaub was as good a game managing quarterback the NFL knew.  But he lost focus.  After endless weeks of pick 6’s, Schaub was cheered when he left a game injured and hasn’t been seen since.  Meanwhile, the team simply hasn’t made impact plays.  They have forced just 9 turnovers on the year (they’ve lost 21), and they crumble under pressure.  Now with fresh quarterback Case Keenum starting (and playing very average) the Texans are 2-10 and eagerly awaiting this nightmare to be over.  Where will they go from here?

The ability of fortunes to be reversed so quickly in the NFL reveals just how close the competition is in the NFL.  Each of these teams have had recent success and made the playoffs quite often, but 2013 simply isn’t their year.  While disappointment is surely running rampant, fans can rest easy with the single thought that next season they will have every opportunity to come back to form.  And at least next year’s NFL Draft will be exciting with a high draft pick!

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Is Luke Kuechly of the Carolina Panthers the Next Great NFL Linebacker?

One thing has been proven over the past 2 weeks in the NFL: The Carolina Panthers look set to be the breakout team in the NFC.  With a revitalized defense that has topped the rankings in the league, the Panthers just earned two marquee victories over the San Francisco 49ers and the New England Patriots.  Now on a 6-game win streak, the Panthers are becoming that team that no one wants to face.  So what has revolutionized this team and their defense?  Linebacker Luke Kuechly!

Hailing from Boston College, Kuechly took the league by storm last year, amassing 164 tackles and earning Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.  Cementing his position as middle linebacker and leader of the Panthers’ defense, the league could be dominated by this inspiring force for many years.  In the last decade, most of the top NFL defenses have been cemented by a star linebacker.  Think about the Baltimore Ravens with Ray Lewis, or the Chicago Bears featuring Brian Urlacher.

The linebacker is the prototypical football player position.  He is the perfect blend of brute strength and speed, usually encompassing a bulky yet muscular disposition.  A true linebacker roams all over the field tackling everyone he can, but most importantly making impact plays that change a game.  Kuechly is currently the prime example of a young star linebacker ready to take his team to the top.  But there is a funny trend emerging with recent superstar linebackers: They tend to burn bright but fade rather quickly.

Let’s look at some recent linebacker stars.  Brian Cushing was drafted 15^th overall in 2009, had 4 interceptions, 4 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles in his first season.  He made 133 tackles and earned the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.  The Texans quickly became one of the league’s best defenses.  However, fast forward several years and things have changed.  He only played 5 games last year, and this year has just 1.5 sacks and 1 interception.  The Texans are one of the worst teams in the league.  Cushing isn’t alone in such a mid-career decline in form by linebackers.

Shawne Merriman came with much aplomb to the San Diego Chargers in 2005, earned 10 sacks as a rookie, trademarked his wonderful “light’s out” dance, and was awarded the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.  His dominance would last just two more years, culminating in a trip to the AFC Championship game for this tough defense.  But injury would derail his hopes in 2008.  He was eventually cut from the team in 2010.  Since then the Chargers have been painfully average.  Merriman joined the Buffalo Bills, never returned to form, and recently retired.

Let’s look at Patrick Willis of the San Francisco 49ers.  His first year in 2007 turned out 174 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and 4 sacks, leading to a Defensive Rookie of the Year Award.  However, while the 49ers have returned to form in the NFL in the last 3 years, Willis’ stats have steadily declined.  He has just 1 sack this year, and most of the team’s defensive prowess has come from other playmakers.

How about Clay Matthews of the Green Bay Packers?  He helped the team to a Super Bowl victory in 2010, earning 13.5 sacks that year!  While his stats and impact plays have still been prominent, his play has certainly dropped and he has suffered from injuries.  More importantly, the Packers’ defense has regressed and he hasn’t recorded an interception since 2011.

Sure, the above picture is quite pessimistic on the longevity of these players.  But there have been a couple of guys who have sustained great statistics and leadership throughout a full career: Brian Urlacher and Ray Lewis.

Urlacher immediately gave legitimacy to the Chicago Bears’ defense in 2000, and also won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.  He had earned 8 sacks, 2 interceptions, and recorded 123 tackles.  Fortunately, his career culminated in his 8^th season, where he managed 5 interceptions and 5 sacks.  However, even he faced a barren patch in 2003 with 0 turnovers.  He seemed to be able to overcome his lulls and put together a Hall of Fame caliber career.

Another sure bet for the NFL Hall of Fame is Ray Lewis.  Although Lewis was never a sack-master, he was a game changer with interceptions and piled up over a 100 tackles in 13 of his 17 seasons.  The only years in which he didn’t manage such high tackles was due to games missed.  Lewis could never be worn down and seemed to play with a passion and fire that is far and away the highest ever seen in the league.  He was awarded with 2 Super Bowls and is the true dream for a defensive coordinator.

So what is Luke Kuechly?  Will he continue to put up these stats and lead the Panthers to eternal glory?  Or is he a sure bet to fade in the coming years?  To me it seems that the Defensive Rookie of the Year award may be something of a curse…  Also, I also think that many linebackers suffer the fate similar to running backs.  They generally have a shortened career through the constant battering of violent tackles and running around all game.  Another factor that probably limits mid-career linebackers is the ability of opponents to review game film.  Teams eventually discover a playmaker’s weaknesses and find ways to negate them in a gameplan.  Pulled guards are assigned to flatten such players and running plays often head away from the playmaker.  Kuechly currently benefits from his surprise factor and that he has just become relevant to the league.

So where will he go once his body suffers from continued bruises and offensive coordinators discover his weaknesses?  Does he have the heart of a Ray Lewis?  Only time will tell.  However, I’d suggest that Panthers fans enjoy this moment and hope for glory in the next year or two, because history suggests that such high-caliber play from a linebacker goes away as quickly as it arrives!

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