Can Auburn Complete the Miracle Season with a BCS National Title Win over Florida State?

For the Auburn Tigers, this football season has been the most remarkable accomplishment of all time.  After going 3-9 last year, the team brought in a new coach and a new quarterback and had minimal hopes for success.  Until about halfway through the season, Auburn wasn’t even ranked, and they really only came into the BCS National Title conversation two weeks ago with their sensational victory over Alabama.

Meanwhile, their opponent in the title game, Florida State, came into the year with high hopes and a decent ranking.  Although the departing quarterback E.J. Manuel had left a large hole in the most important position on offense, the Seminoles featured a strong defense and great talent at the skill positions.  Incoming Freshman Jameis Winston showed great potential but would be a large question mark heading into the year.  He came through all right, throwing for nearly 4,000 years and 38 touchdowns.  He has also shown great maturity for a youngster, throwing just 10 interceptions, and he is now a finalist for the Heisman trophy.  The team also harbors the number 2 scoring offense in the nation.  Defensively, they have been a fortress, and are the top ranked team in points scored against them.  How can this Auburn team possibly contend?

The most important thing for Auburn is their ability to control games through their top-ranked rushing attack.  They have 3 capable running backs including Heisman hopeful Tre Mason (1621 rushing yards, 22 touchdowns), Corey Grant (650 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns), and Cameron Artis-Payne (609 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns).

But what makes the team the most threatening is their multi-talented quarterback Nick Marshall.  The Junior experienced a rough start to his collegiate career, being dismissed by Georgia and having to earn his way back to Division I football through a year at Garden City Community College.  But he has succeeded and is a key member of this Auburn team.  He routinely runs the option to great success, and even has put up serious numbers on the ground himself (1023 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns) amidst his respectable throwing numbers (1759 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions).  Additionally, with the team’s tendency to run the hurry-up offense, their rushing attack capitalizes on exploiting mismatches and wearing out the opponents’ defenses.  Another great factor about Auburn’s fast tempo rushing assault is that they can continue to run even when behind in a game.  They did this to marvelous success against Alabama in the Iron Bowl when they were multiple scores behind.  Gus Malzahn has clearly worked magic with the Auburn Tigers, taking them from a winless record in the SEC in 2012 to the BCS National Championship game this year!

Now facing one of the top national defenses, the Tigers will be surely tested.  But they will also be the strongest matchup that Florida State has faced all year.  While FSU’s average score this year has favored them 50-10 over opponents, those teams of the ACC aren’t quite the most challenging teams around.  Only Clemson and Miami really stood a chance, and one could argue that they were severely over-ranked when those matches occurred.  And so while FSU went undefeated and is statistically favored in this game, Auburn should be pretty evenly matched.  And as evidenced by their ridiculous finishes to recent games, the Tigers seem to have luck on their side.  They even benefitted from Ohio State’s recent loss just to earn a spot in this game.  If there’s a team of destiny, this is it.  Remember, an SEC team has won the title 7 years running.  The real question should be: does Florida State have any chance at winning a title with a Freshman quarterback who is about to play his first game against a serious SEC contender?

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Auburn Host Alabama in an Iron Bowl for the Ages

College football fans gearing up for Saturday have every reason to be excited.  While nearly all the colleges engage in their major rivalry games, one match will certainly be the most watched game in the country: Alabama Crimson Tide versus Auburn Tigers.  Never have the stakes been this high for both teams in the Iron Bowl, and never has the Crimson Tide had to deal with such a high profile opponent in this rivalry during their recent spell of dominance.

Ever since Cam Newton led Auburn to a BCS National Championship in 2010 and departed, Alabama has pounded the Tigers, winning both the 2011 and 2012 affairs by large margins.  Those Auburn teams were not very competitive, but this year it has all changed.  While Alabama is ranked number 1 and undefeated, Auburn is 10-1 and ranked number 4 in the nation.

This game has massive title implications.  The winner will head to the SEC Championship and potentially the BCS National Title game.  The loser will still reach a major bowl game, but will surely be disappointed in seeing their championship hopes denied by their fiercest rival.  This is truly a match for the ages!

So how will it play out?  The stats and history all point to a victory for Alabama.  They have earned the past 2 National Titles and have been ranked number 1 all season long.  This program has gotten ridiculously good in the past 3 years.  Their defense is the best in the country, allowing just 90 rushing yards per contest.  Led by senior linebacker and tackling machine C.J. Mosley, and the exciting freshman defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson, the Crimson Tide run defense is exceptional and has enabled their success.

Meanwhile, Auburn finds most of its offensive success through rushing the ball.  Something has got to give!  Ranked second in the nation with over 300 ground yards per game, the Tigers’ rushing attack is a 4-headed monster, led by exciting junior tailback Tre Mason.  Additionally, versatile quarterback Nick Marshall likes to run and has 9 rushing touchdowns on the year, while Cameron Artis-Payne also gets in on the action with over 6 yards per carry on his touches.  And then there is Corey Grant, a former Alabama player who crossed a serious line in joining the Tigers.  A dynamic playmaking threat with the ball who is an excellent return man, Grant can be the X-factor in this game.

So what should happen with this key matchup?  No one knows for sure, but if Alabama can halt this rushing attack they will win easily.  Should Auburn run for several hundred yards, they will have every chance to snatch the victory in a tight game.

In the air, Alabama’s senior quarterback A.J. McCarron is a Heisman frontrunner who has made countless throws and smart decisions this year, limiting himself to just 5 interceptions.  However, Auburn’s defense features two safeties known for interceptions in Ryan Smith and Robinson Therezie.  With the deep ball likely to be a dangerous proposition, McCarron will be looking to his own ground game for support and tossing shorter throws.  Crimson Tide tailbacks T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake will be keys to the game.  Against a rather average Auburn rush defense, they will certainly be able to gain yards.  The big question is whether or not Auburn can counter that with a successful ground game of their own.

Now, in reality this is a game that looks to heavily favor Alabama.  Most the stats sway in their favor, they are seeking a 3^rd straight BCS National Championship, and they are the most feared team in college football with a menacing defense.  But in some weird way, I see this as exactly the game they may lose.  College football games (especially rivalry games) are always tensely fought.  Upsets happen a lot.  And as we saw two weeks ago with the ridiculous last minute touchdown pass of destiny over Georgia, Auburn has good fortune on their side this season.  And after suffering two brutal defeats at the hands of Alabama the last two years, the Tigers will surely be up for a fight in front of their home fans.  Against the odds, I think Auburn will manage to gain some yardage on the ground and might just even escape with a last second field goal to win: 20-17.

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