11 AFC Teams Having Winning Records but Only 6 Playoff Spots are Available

It’s going to be a soul-crushing experience in January for much of the AFC.  At the current moment 11 of the conference’s 16 NFL teams have winning records, but just 6 of them will reach the playoffs.  That means that nearly half of the teams that are currently feeling quite good about their season won’t even get to watch their teams compete in a playoff game!  Let’s take a look at who will be figuring to come out of this mess with a postseason berth and who will be looking back at the month of December and wondering what happened.

First, let’s take a look at how this strange scenario has come to be.  One thing odd about the AFC (and the entire NFL) this year is that no team has dominated up until this point.  The best teams stand at 9-3, which is only a 75% winning record.  While good, when we realize that these are the league’s current strongest teams we have great parity.  But at the other end of the standings lies the dark truth.  4 AFC teams have become the dreaded whipping boys of the conference.  The New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Oakland Raiders all sit poorly placed at 2-10 or worse.  Their overall atrociousness has been gifting all the other teams easy victories, which is in large part responsible for the current situation.  However, while some of these AFC teams’ wins may be unjustified, the fact that so many are winning will set up for an enthralling December!

What’s truly astounding about these records is that typically strong teams like the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos have very little wiggle room in the upcoming weeks.  Tom Brady and the Patriots are just 2 games ahead of both the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins (both at 7-5).  With games against both teams, New England could possibly lose their division lead and perhaps even a playoff spot!  While I certainly doubt that will happen, the very possibility of it this late in the season speaks to the conference’s strength and equality.

It’s also worth noting that many of these 7-5 teams are going to be playing one another and their records will balance out.  An intriguing situation has developed in the AFC North, where the Cincinnati Bengals hold a 1.5 game lead over the 7-5 Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers.  Each team could conceivably win the division or finish in 4^th!  While a Browns surprise would be delightful, I suspect the Bengals should hold onto the lead.

Elsewhere, I expect the Broncos, Patriots, and Indianapolis Colts to hold onto their division leads while the San Diego Chargers and the Baltimore Ravens should claim the wildcard sports.

However, with these wildcard opportunities still hotly contested, the final weeks of the year will be extremely entertaining as the stakes continue to grow.  For all the contending teams of the AFC, the playoffs are basically starting right now.  No one can afford to slip up and it’s all up to play for.  While the current mass of 11 winning teams lopped in the conference will certainly change in the next month, those who do reach the NFL playoffs will have earned their tickets!

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NFL Season Picks Up Right Where it Left Off Last Season

The wonderful thing about the NFL is that with the worst teams getting the top draft picks, and with the inclusion of the salary cap, predicting who will remain dominant from one year to the next is a very inexact science.  Once great teams can implode very quickly while a “worst to first” occurrence in one of the NFL divisions seems to happen annually.  However, after watching week 1 of the 2014 NFL season, it seems like this year has picked up right where we left off from a year ago, with little substantial change.

In short, both Super Bowl participants of last year won big.  The Seattle Seahawks’ tough defense beat up on the Green Bay Packers (whose weak defense continues to look shaky).  Meanwhile, Peyton Manning and his high-octane Denver Broncos offense looked tremendous (even without the suspended Wes Welker) once again in their victory over his former team, the Indianapolis Colts.  However, the Colts still looked competitive, as Andrew Luck nearly pulled off a comeback reminiscent of his heroics last season in the NFL playoffs against the Kansas City Chiefs.  However, against a top-level team like the Broncos, his efforts weren’t enough.

Elsewhere, most of last season’s playoff teams won last week, including the Carolina Panthers, the Cincinnati Bengals, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Philadelphia Eagles.  A few surprises did rattle our predicting senses, like the Miami Dolphins tremendous comeback victory over Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, and the Tennessee Titans dominating the Chiefs, who’s poor form late last season seems to have continued.

Largely though, it was the same players kicking off the year in the fashion we’ve grown used to.  The Dallas Cowboys’ quarterback Tony Romo continued to throw the ball (and the game) away to the defense with 3 interceptions, the San Diego Chargers found a way to ruin a strong lead over the Arizona Cardinals, and the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints battled to an exciting, close game which Matt Ryan and the Falcons won.

And unfortunately, the typical lowest of the low NFL teams continued their atrocious form, reminding fans that they are still paltry teams that shouldn’t even dream of glory; see the Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, St. Louis Rams, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

But what does warmly breathe new life for football fans is that the sport has officially returned.  Yes, your specific team may still be dealing with the frustrations of the past and a rather bleak outlook, but at least your Sunday afternoons have returned to normal with all the games on display!

And who knows, there are still 15 games for each team to decide their fate.  The great thing about the NFL season is that teams can easily overcome a loss by proving the doubters wrong the next week by winning and changing their fortunes.  The real drama of the season will arrive come December, when the playoff contending teams must get their acts together and earn vital wins.  But those days are still a long ways away.  For now, it’s time to simply enjoy the action because while half the teams lost their openers, the season still beckons brightly for everyone….Except the Rams…losing Sam Bradford to an ACL again is just tragic!

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Are the Denver Broncos the Best Team in NFL History?

Through 5 games, the Denver Broncos look to be the best team ever in the NFL.  The numbers speak for themselves:  Their 46 points per game is a full 16 points higher than the Dallas Cowboys, who are in 2^nd place this year.  They are averaging nearly 500 yards per game.  Quarterback Peyton Manning has already thrown 20 touchdown passes to just 1 interception.  That’s more than twice the touchdown passes by Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Andrew Luck, and Tom Brady.  So while the Broncos are clearly playing head and shoulders above everyone else today (particularly on offense), is this team the greatest we’ve ever seen?  And should we now put our entire life saving’s on this sure bet to win Super Bowl XLVIII?

At 5-0, the Broncos have been perfect, but we all know this is a long season, and those ’72 Miami Dolphins are the lone team to sustain it throughout an entire year.  Recent seasons have seen similar early displays of dominance.  The 2007 Patriots actually went 16-0 during the regular season and put up most of the NFL records that the Broncos will be chasing.  The 2011 Green Bay Packers started 13-0, and Aaron Rodgers went on to break the single season quarterback rating with 122.5 (Manning’s 2013 rating is currently 136.4).  It is worth pointing out though that neither of those tremendous teams won the Super Bowl that year.

The problem with blazing hot starts to an NFL season is that you risk running out of steam.  The Super Bowl champion is usually the team that clicks towards the end of the season, not the start.  Passing becomes more difficult as the temperatures drop, so the games begin to revolve around clock management and rushing attacks.  Knowshon Moreno is off to a decent start this year, but it may have a lot to do with opposing defense’s current pre-occupation in defending Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker.  Also, the Broncos may have a fumbling problem with 6 fumble losses on the year (only the New York Giants have more with 7).

Another common trait among Super Bowl champions is a strong defense.  The jury is still out on the Broncos’ defense.  Although they rank 29^th in yards allowed, their 8^th rank in points allowed resembles an ability to hold down the fort. Also, remember that superstar linebacker Von Miller hasn’t played a single snap this year.  After recording 18 sacks last season, Miller could vastly boost this defense and help terrorize opponents.

Therefore, I think we should optimistic about the Broncos’ Super Bowl chances, but we need to exercise some patience.  Yes, this team is on pace to shatter quite a few records, but when temperatures drop and the team faces some real adversity, we will get a stronger sense of their true capabilities.  It’s also worth mentioning that the Broncos have had a fairly soft schedule up to this point, with their opponents combining to a 9-16 record (excluding games against Denver it is 9-11).  Looking ahead, there are really only 4 tough games on the schedule (2 against the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs, 1 against the Patriots, and 1 mouth-watering date with Manning’s former team, the Indianapolis Colts).  We will probably have to wait until the NFL playoffs to determine how special this Denver Broncos team really is, and should wait until they actually win the Super Bowl before we start declaring them the best team ever.

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Are the 3-0 KC Chiefs and Miami Dolphins Ready to Be the 2013 NFL Surprise Teams?

Every year some NFL team comes from out of nowhere to stun the league and put on a successful winning season.  During each offseason, there becomes a fun game of speculation in which media pundits and fans guess on which team will be next year’s surprise.  While most predictions are hugely wrong, time and time again the following NFL season comes equipped with a fun and new surprise team that threatens the established group of top football squads.  So far this year, the two surprises have been the Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins, two teams with 3-0 records and hopes that are building up for a seat in this season’s NFL playoffs.  Are these teams for real, or are they among the many that got off to a hot start before fading back into oblivion down the season’s stretch?

 

One clear truth is that regardless of their hot starts, both teams have the unfortunate reality of being in the same division as a premier NFL quarterback.  The Dolphins will be competing against Tom Brady and the inspirational New England Patriots, winners of 9 of the past 10 AFC East division crowns.  Meanwhile the Chiefs are residing in the AFC West, a division marred by Peyton Manning’s arrival to the Denver Broncos, who are nearly everyone’s favorites to win the Super Bowl.  So will either team even have a hope of winning their division or is a wildcard position a more realistic goal?

 

I think the Chiefs have the strongest hopes for playoff success this season.  New head coach Andy Reid is a proven winner as shown by his previous work leading the Philadelphia Eagles.  Quarterback Alex Smith is going to be playing with a massive chip on his shoulder.  He was surplus to requirements with the San Francisco 49ers last year, even though he had led the team to a 6-2 record before a concussion resulted in his benching for Colin Kaepernick to take over.

 

Alex Smith is the ultimate “game manager” quarterback, who thrives when supported by a strong defense and great players around him.  The Chiefs have several key offensive playmakers like running back Jamaal Charles and wide receiver Dwayne Bowe.  With 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions, Smith and the Chiefs have avoided turning the ball over all season long, and though they’ve yet to face a tough opponent, they have won all their games through tough defense and consistent offensive production.  Therefore, I feel the Chiefs are in a great position to sustain their success and have a real shot at the playoffs this year, which would complete a remarkable turnaround from last season’s 2-14 mark.

 

I’m less optimistic about the Dolphins’ hopes.  Their statistics reveal a rather average team, although their 4^th quarter comeback to beat the Atlanta Falcons was heroic.  Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is young, and while he will still be a bit error-prone as he develops, this season’s start bodes well for his future, and his play has been decent.  His offensive line needs to improve in protection though, as Tannehill has been sacked 14 times through just 3 games.  But, one hopeful statistic is that the Dolphins’ defense has produced 5 interceptions, showing they can make a play.  Also, the team has won close games, which will become all the more important in big games down the stretch, especially the two against the division rivals Patriots.  I would say there is still just a 50% chance that the Dolphins make the playoffs.  They will certainly be tested in their two upcoming games against the New Orleans Saints and the Baltimore Ravens.

 

Late September is still way too early to really know which teams are going to be the exciting turn-around stories in the NFL.  Injuries and tough division games can change these team’s prospects in a real hurry, but fans of the Dolphins and Chiefs should be feeling a heck of a lot better at 3-0 than they would at 0-3.  Let’s see if these teams can keep up their good play as the temperatures start to drop towards winter.  Also, we can look forward to the real tests as these teams play intense divisional matchups against the Broncos and Patriots!

 

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The Top 10 NFL Free Agents in 2013 Beginning to Bat Eyes

Wes Welker Silver Coin Photo Mint

Predicting who are the top 10 free agents of 2013 in the NFL will be is not an easy task, especially since many of the free agents will be re-signed by their respective teams in the buildup to the free agency period that officially begins on March 12th. One player in particular, Joe Flacco, is surely going to continue playing as a Baltimore Raven following his Super Bowl victory. Several other players are simply too important to be let go too. Therefore, this list is my prediction of the best players available in the NFL who are highly unlikely to stay on board with their current teams:

10. Cliff Avril – Free agency is always full of big money players who will fail to live up to their hype and I think Cliff Avril will be the guy this year. His statistics appear to be that of a premier pass rusher as he has reached about 10 sacks per year in the last 3 seasons. But Avril is rather poor otherwise, so although he will occasionally get to the quarterback, he does little else for the team, which is why the Detroit Lions will let him go. Expect him to sign a big contract but end up disappointing.

9. Reggie Bush – The world was expected of him when he came to the NFL in 2006, but he has largely failed to live up to the hype. Nevertheless, Reggie Bush has actually been a solid player for the Miami Dolphins in the last two seasons, generating around 1,000 rushing yards and scoring 15 touchdowns while averaging well over 4 yards/carry. He still has a few good years left at age 27 and presents a solid, dynamic playmaking type player who makes an impact. Not necessarily a team’s number 1 running back, Reggie Bush would fit nicely in a running back by committee situation but probably wants premier money.

8. Wes Welker – With five 1,000-yard seasons behind him, Wes Welker has been a great player. He routinely catches over 100 balls a season and is a great receiver to move the chains. However at age 31, Welker is also reaching the end of his talents. Teams will also be wary of his success at the New England Patriots, who are known to get the best out of less than stellar players. Will Welker still be a great wide receiver somewhere else without Tom Brady? I believe so and I think someone will benefit with a couple solid years of production with his signing.

7. Dominique Rogers-Cromartie – He never quite produced for the Philadelphia Eagles despite his solid years with the Arizona Cardinals. Very athletic and talented, I feel that Rogers-Cromartie will benefit from a change of scenery. Although he will command a high dollar amount, he will produce if placed within the right defensive scheme. Clearly the faults of the Eagles went beyond him alone, and I think a fortunate team will be happy to have him, though he is hardly going to be a bargain buy at cornerback.

6. Derek Cox – Another intriguing cornerback on the market has 12 career interceptions in just 44

 starts with the Jacksonville Jaguars. He has had some niggling injuries but has also proven to be effective in guarding receivers and making plays. Less known than some of the other stars in the league, Cox is looking for a huge contract and may find just that given his young age and solid potential as a consistent and impactful cornerback.

5. Greg Jennings – A great wide receiver when healthy, it is worth noting that Jennings has missed a good deal of time over the last two seasons and hasn’t surpassed 1,000 receiving yards since 2010. Nevertheless, when healthy he is a great catcher of the ball with an eye for yards after the catch. Approaching 30, he may be reaching the end of the line, but will still command a decent price from a desperate team. How he fares without Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers tossing him the ball is an entirely different question though.

4. Osi Umenyiora – Some teams may shy away from the 31-year-old pass rusher who only earned 6 sacks last year, but Umenyiora can be a beast and performed remarkably in the playoffs during the New York Giants’ 2011 Super Bowl run, forcing a fumble and earning 3.5 sacks. A true professional, he will cement the end position for a team for several seasons and can make the plays. The Giants don’t have much cap room so he has to go, but I do suspect him to make a small fortune in a few weeks and be a solid starter for whomever he signs with.

3. Shonn Greene – Big and strong, Greene has rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of the past 2 seasons and also makes for a great pass blocker. His intangibles make him a great free agent buy and the New York Jets are fools to let him go. Only 27 years old, he will be a force for a lucky team with more direction, and could well be on his way to reinvigorating his career at a legitimate NFL contender.

2. Mike Wallace – He catches a lot of balls for good yardage and scores a lot of touchdowns. What more could a team want? One of the fastest players around he will command a ton of money, and he knows it. The Pittsburgh Steelers rarely cave to players demanding big money, so Mike Wallace is set to hit the road and take his talents elsewhere. Although costly, Wallace will definitely make fans happy and score a lot of points for whomever he signs with. He is surely among the best free agent wide receivers available.

1. Jake Long – A capable left tackle, the Miami Dolphins seem to be annoyed with Long’s late-season injuries the past two seasons and his demands for $10 million per year. As the former top draft pick in 2008, Long has the publicity and talent to command this kind of money. Although this year’s draft is filled with great offensive tackles, Long is proven and will be a foundation for whichever team he signs for. Yes he is expensive, but he will be worth the high price with his great play. His injury worries are a definite concern though and make him a bit of a risk.

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Jerry Porter leaves for Miami Dolphins

It looks as though the Miami Dolphins are attempting to build their team to make a run for the Super Bowl in 2007. They just agreed to a 5 year contract worth $32 million with Pittsburgh Steeler's linebacker Joey Porter.

Porter is quaranteed $20 million in the deal. Porter still has to pass his physical and the contract may not be signed until later today.

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